As 2012 comes to a close, I think we can call the biggest prediction (that the world would end) a bust. But what about predictions about blogging, social networking, and other parts of the new media world? Let’s take a look at 2012 predictions and whether or not they came true.
Prediction #1: Photo and video social networks will blossom
Who said it? Jay Baer (who will be speaking at NMX 2013)
Where he said it: this post from Social Media Examiner
Did it come true: Yes
I think we can all agree that Jay was right on the money with this prediction. During 2012, both Pinterest and Instagram grew rapidly, and more and more people started experimenting with creating videos to publish online. Even on established social networks like Facebook, we saw a boost in people using images and video.
The post on Social Media Examiner contains a number of 2012 predictions, as well; some right on the money and others a little off the mark.
Prediction #2: Social television converging with traditional television
Who said it: Elise Moreau
Where she said it: an About.com blog post
Did it come true: Somewhat
While some of her other predictions definitely came true, I think this one is a little farther from what really happened. Social television is still lagging a bit, though it is definitely growing. What we are seeing are apps and websites like Get Glue expanding rapidly, but we still aren’t seeing widespread adoption of smart TVs. Second screen apps like those offered by AMC are also growing, and according to reports, more people are using tablets, computers, and smartphones to browse while watching TV.
So, I’ll say that this prediction came true…somewhat. But I think we still have a pretty far way to go when it comes to social television.
Prediction #3: Google+ becoming a force in 2012
Who said it: Content Marketing Institute
Where it was said: their 2012 predictions slide show
Did it come true: No
It’s not like nobody uses Google+. In fact, lots of people use Google+. But a force? No way. There’s little mainstream adoption; people have stuck to Facebook for the most part. But having a Google+ profile does have other benefits. Namely, Google has remained a search engine powerhouse, so Google+ posts regularly show up in search results. The information you provide also helps Google connect the dots to figure out who you are.
You can definitely be successful on Google+, though. Amanda Blain is going to speak at NMX 2013 about this very topic, in fact. It’s quite a stretch to call this network a force, though.
Prediction #4: Every brand becoming social
Who said it: Eric Wheeler
Where he said it: a blog post for Venture Beat
Did it come true? Yes (for the most part)
While there might be a few holdouts, it’s rare to find a brand that doesn’t have at least one social profile (usually Facebook), and many are on several networks. One of the other points he makes is that social data will become more important to brands, and I definitely think this has come true. While in the past, companies were using social media just because they “had” to, the question today on everyone’s mind is, “Why?” Brands want to see ROI, and without data, it’s impossible to show that.
Prediction #5: Social sharing options everywhere
Who said it: David Armano
Where he said it: a blog post for Harvard Business Review
Did it come true: Yes
It seems like I can’t do anything online without an option popping up inviting me to share. Buy this product? Share it. Sign up for an account? Share it. I’m waiting for the days when they start asking us to share that we’ve just shared something!
But all joking aside, I like it that the Internet is becoming more social. Writes David, “We probably don’t know what we are willing to share until we see the option to do it.” How true is that? I find social sharing notices helpful as reminders to share my activities when they might interest others.
Did you make any social media predictions for 2012? Did they come true or were you surprised? Leave a comment below!
Allison, regarding prediction #3, you’re not alone in doubting the impact of Google+ — but the fact that it’s not “mainstream” is what ironically makes it so valuable to savvy marketers who have adopted this platform.
There’s more signal and less noise on G+, particularly when compared to Facebook.
Granted, it’s not a “force” to those of you who seek out the latest cute cat video or photos of your friend’s babies. But that’s not a big loss for those of us that crave a more business-oriented platform (similar in substantive value to LinkedIn).
My point: I personally prefer quality of content and purposeful dialogue over quantity of users when assessing the value of a new platform. This is one of those use-cases where less (chatter) is more (beneficial).
I think this is the point most Google+ fans make – and it certainly is a valid one. I think for me, the problem is that there’s nothing I get with Google+ that I can’t get somewhere else, other than SEO value, since I keep my Facebook friends list really tight. I can see why some people like this platform, but “a force”? No way, at least not in my opinion. That could certainly change!
I never really understood the “social television” idea since I”m not sure how we could have a “sharable television experiences ” without infringing on copyrights or forcing our friends to watch a show for 20 minutes to make sense of a comment half way through?
I think “social television” is happening in a sense with youtube though and having people move from traditional television shows to shorter segment series.
Prediction #3: Google+ becoming a force in 2012 – I believe this one has actually came true in some aspect. G+ has been found a vital SEO engine by most of the webmasters. I can’t tell whether they are right but the common believe is that the bigger the number of “pluses” and followers of Google+ profiles, the better search results position…
With reference to Prediction #3: Google plus, I agree that very few people use it, but it is indeed a powerful tool. Google Plus profile can be easily integrated with your all other social media profiles. And yes I agree with you on the point that it helps Google to know who you are.