So says John Gartner of Marketing Shift:
Podcasting technology has been around for a decade, and just because the “Pod” name was put on it a few years ago doesn’t mean it will be any more successful.
The multitude of independent podcasters will scratch and claw for the occasional hour when people want to hear about a niche of their interest, but podcasting will have about the same long term business impact as e-books.
It’s way to early to be making predictions like this. As of today podcasting is growing by leaps and bounds, when it starts to sink, or at least stops growing then he might have a point.